In many European economies, the recovery following the financial crisis has proven either sluggish or non-existent. Many countries suffer from persistently high levels of unemployment, coupled with sluggish credit dynamics and stretched fiscal budgets. These outcomes put pressure on policymakers...

Judgement and expert knowledge is widely thought to be important in the successful practice of forecasting. For policymakers, forecasts also embody judgements about the state of the economy, the transmission of shocks and optimal policy responses which necessitate the use of structural models....