A model of path-dependence in decisions over multiple propositions [Journal Article]

I model sequential decisions over multiple interconnected propositions and investigate pathdependencein such decisions. The propositions and their interconnections are represented in propositionallogic. A sequential decision process is path-dependent if its outcome depends on the order inwhich the propositions are considered. Assuming that earlier decisions constrain later ones, I prove threemain results: First, certain rationality violations by the decision-making agent—–individual or group—–arenecessary and sufficient for path-dependence. Second, under some conditions, path-dependence is unavoidablein decisions made by groups. Third, path-dependence makes decisions vulnerable to strategicagenda setting and strategic voting. I also discuss escape routes from path-dependence. My results arerelevant to discussions on collective consistency and reason-based decision-making, focusing not onlyon outcomes, but also on underlying reasons, beliefs, and constraints.