A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth

We compare the Bank of England's Inflation Report quarterly forecasts for growth and inflation to real-time benchmark forecasts. The results reveal the well-known difficulty of forecasting in a stable macroeconomic environment, and the Inflation Report forecasts of GDP growth are generally inferior to forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate models. However, for the inflation forecast the Inflation Report is clearly dominant.

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Year of publication:	2009
Authors:	Groen, Jan J.J. ; Kapetanios, George ; Price, Simon
Published in:	International Journal of Forecasting. - Elsevier, ISSN 0169-2070. - Vol. 25.2009, 1, p. 74-80
Publisher:	Elsevier
Keywords:	Real-time data Forecast performance Inflation Growth

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Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005418063