Applications of the Carlson-Parkin Method to Japanese Price Expectations (in Japanese)

This paper introduces the Carlson-Parkin [1975] method (henceforth, CP) and its variants, which derive an inflation expectation series using actual inflation and published aggregates from a survey on individual economic agents, to beginners. We use the survey results from the Bank of Japan's Tankan (General Explanation of the Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) and the Cabinet Office's Consumer Confidence Survey to derive the expectations of firms and consumers, respectively. The findings from our CP applications to those Japanese data indicate that, though the CP method is a positive attempt to derive an unobservable expectation series based on limited available information, there is plenty of room for improvements to make the derived series more realistic. Considering the important role of inflation/deflation expectations in economic fluctuations, it is an urgent task to have more reliable estimates of expected inflation. We must continue the search for a good proxy of inflation expectations beyond the CP method.