Beyond Public Opinion : Are Rightward Shifts of Mainstream Parties Attributed to Radical Right Success?

This study investigates how radical right success, as expressed by parliamentary representation, causally affects the dynamics of party competition in Europe. Focusing on 29 European countries over the period 1960-2020, our analysis seeks to identify how mainstream parties strategically adjust their political agenda in response to the entry of a radical right party in parliament. We do this using a regression discontinuity approach that allows us to estimate the causal effect of radical right representation on mainstream parties’ positions, ruling out voter preferences and/or other unobserved factors as potential confounders. Contrary to existing studies, we find no evidence for accommodation of anti-immigration policies by mainstream parties due to radical right success. Our results suggest that mainstream right parties respond to the threat of the radical right by shifting their overall ideological position towards the center, but without shifting their position on immigration and integration issues. Instead, mainstream left parties respond to radical right success by taking up pro-immigrant positions, but without altering their overall ideological position. Overall, our findings indicate that electoral success of the radical right causes mainstream party moderation, giving important insights into the analysis of party competition and mainstream party’s responsiveness to the radical right, which is on the rise across Europe