Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

ed. by Mark W. Watson, James H. Stock

The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis

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Year of publication:	[1993]
Other Persons:	Anderson, Heather M. (contributor) ; Bernanke, Ben S. (contributor) ; Braun, Phillip (contributor) ; Diebold, Francis X. (contributor) ; Stock, James H. (ed.) ; Watson, Mark W. (ed.)
Publisher:	Chicago : University of Chicago Press
Subject:	Wirtschaftsindikator \| Economic indicator \| Frühindikator \| Leading indicator \| Theorie \| Theory \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle
Description of contents:	Description [degruyter.com]

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (348 p.) 51 line drawings, 85 tables
Series:	National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles ; 28
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Frontmatter Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research Contents Acknowledgments Introduction 1. Twenty-two Years of the NBERASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance 2. A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 3. Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation 4. A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model 5. Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? 6. Further Evidence on Business- Cycle Duration Dependence 7. A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections 8. Modeling Nonlinearity over the Business Cycle Contributors Author Index Subject Index In English
ISBN:	978-0-226-77474-9
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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