Capturing the uncertainties of retail development: The case of emerging markets

This paper aims to better understand how retail development in emerging markets might occur by carrying out a detailed analysis of Indian retailing and then applying the results to a wider range of emerging markets. The goal is to identify potential patterns of future retail development in emerging economies. The scenarios approach was considered an appropriate methodology for investigating developing economies as it accepts structural uncertainty with multiple interpretations and multiple futures. In fact for retailing, there are countless ‘right’ answers, endless combinations of business models and infinite permutations of key themes and approaches. Conceptualising the evolution of different retail formats taking the scenarios approach is therefore a prudent choice of methodology, especially in wanting to avoid the dangers of over formalising the format development process within the retail context in emerging markets. Four possible visions for retail development in India, each with their own benefits and costs: a Kirana Kingdom, Sanskriti Planets, Sasta World or Mishrit Universe were developed from the primary research conducted and then tested in the context of other emerging markets. A combination of regulatory intervention and the changing cultural disposition of consumers on account of changing socio-economic conditions play a significant role in the development of retailing in emerging markets. The significant role of the politics of retailing in emerging markets has also been highlighted in this paper. Retail development in emerging markets can therefore be aligned more closely to combination theory where the consumer-regulation configuration plays a significant role in how retail evolves and develops in these markets.