Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old
A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Next, it compares projected atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate characteristics for SRES and RCPs. Finally, it uses the new scenarios matrix architecture to match SRES scenarios to combinations of RCPs and SSPs, resulting in four suggestions of suitable combinations, mapping: (i) an A2 world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP3, (ii) a B2 (or A1B) world onto RCP 6.0 and SSP2, (iii) a B1 world onto RCP 4.5 and SSP1, and (iv) an A1FI world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP5. A few other variants are also explored. These mappings, though approximate, may assist analysts in reconciling earlier scenarios with the new scenario framework. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014
Year of publication: |
2014
|
---|---|
Authors: | Vuuren, Detlef ; Carter, Timothy |
Published in: |
Climatic Change. - Springer. - Vol. 122.2014, 3, p. 415-429
|
Publisher: |
Springer |
Saved in:
Online Resource
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions
Ebi, Kristie, (2014)
-
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
Brian O’Neill, (2014)
-
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture
Vuuren, Detlef, (2014)
- More ...