Climate Change Impacts on Shrimp Production at the South-West Coastal Region of Bangladesh

This study was conducted to investigate the changes of climate, salinity and their consequent impacts on shrimp production at Shyamnagar under Satkhira District, Bangladesh. An integrated technique was used including social survey, historical climate data, shrimp production data and field analysis. During 1980-2009, a statistically significant decreasing trend of annual average maximum temperature but increasing trend of annual average minimum temperature was found. Maximum temperature exhibited significant decreasing trend in post-monsoon while, increasing trend in winter. The trend of minimum temperature was increasing significantly in post monsoon. Significant increase in relative humidity trends were found in all seasons. Salinity levels of the shrimp farm waters were found to exceed the threshold limits for proper shrimp production. Although the total production was increasing, the rate of shrimp production was decreasing relative to total area of farms. No statistically significant relationships were found between the annual shrimp production and climatic parameters or salinity levels. Depths of inundation at monsoon season exceeded 180 cm, on contrary, at dry season less than 30 cm which was not proper for shrimps. The surface water salinity ranged from 7-46 ppt making farm waters unsuitable for shrimp production. According to the GM (1,1) model, the production of shrimp was hampered by climatic hazards, increasing inundations and salinity problems