Co-evolution vs. Neural Networks; An Evaluation of UK Risky Money

The performance of a "capital certain" Divisia index constructed using the same components included in the Bank of England"s MSI plus national savings; a "risky" Divisia index constructed by adding bonds, shares and unit trusts to the list of assets included in the first index; and a capital certain simple sum index for comparison is compared. nce suggests that co-evolutionary strategies are superior to neural networks in the majority of cases. The risky money index performs at least as well as the Bank of England Divisia index when combined with interest rate information. Notably, the provision of long term interest rates improves the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the Bank of England Divisia index in all cases examined