Credit Cycles : Evidence Based on a Non Linear Model for Developed Countries

We propose an econometric analysis of the evolution of bank credit to the private sector in order to describe credit cycles and identify phases of particularly low (or negative) credit growth such as those that typically accompany financial or banking crises. We use a sample of twelve developed countries, which improves the reliability of our estimation results and provides a global view of the situation of credit for developed countries. In our preferred specification, the credit cycle is characterized as a three-state Markov-switching model that identifies episodes of credit expansion, intermediate credit growth and subpar growth or credit crisis. This specification identifies six of the countries as having experienced period of credit adjustment after the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007 (Canada, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and US). By the end of the sample period, credit growth was still impaired in three of these countries (Germany and Spain in 2010:I; and United States in 2009:IV). The analysis also uncovers a systematic cyclical pattern in the bank lending sector of the group of advanced countries considered in our sample, which have experienced five episodes of synchronous restrictions in bank lending: 1974-75, 1980-82, 1991-93, 2001-02 and from 2008 to the end of the sample