Crescita nei consumi di IV gamma. Un’applicazione del modello AIDS alla domanda italiana di ortofrutta

Fresh-cut and ready to eat products are gaining market shares over fruits and vegetables. Dining habits and cooking time are changing over time and life styles are modifying the food preparation and the time used for eating. In the meanwhile, prices could be playing an important role in the substitution between fresh products and ready-to-eat alternatives. Therefore, the present paper tests the following hypotheses: - measuring the direct price effect on ready-to-eat and fresh cut product in order to verify market stability and price war probability; - measuring the substitution effect between fresh and ready-to-eat categories; The hypotheses have been verified throughout the estimation of a la/aids model that considers a system of 10 equations. The data used for the analysis have been collected by iri-Infoscan and represent the total Italian grocery sales for the years 2008-2010. Results provide evidence that the market is price sensitive and that substitution effect is negligible. Therefore, past, present and future evolutions of fresh-cut and ready-to-eat products should be attributed to price wars. Promotional activities, private label strategies and other price reduction strategies could be winning strategies in order to gain market shares within fruits and vegetable market.