Currency Crises and Economic Fundamentals in Finland.

Recent currency crises in Filand are analyzed. First probit model estimations suggest that growth, unemployment, real exchange rate and contagion effects have affected the probability of a currenycy crisis. Second, empirical shadow floating exchange rates are formed using a revised version of Blanco-Garber method. This method offers structural explanations for the findings of the probit models. Also, it allows studying how the size of foreign reserves fas affected the probability of a crisis.