Demografia da escravidão: um micromodelo dos efeitos do tráfico

The difficulties to obtain regular and trustworthy data series, which describe the set of demographic characteristics we could consider standard (number of existing persons, births and deaths, distributed by age, sex and social condition, within a certain geographic area) are notorious. Lacking all these elements, various statistical techniques or econometric modeling are employed. In situations of lack of systematic data, the results obtained through these methods are not always adequate. This paper presents a demographic model which simulates the evolution of a slave population in two phases: growth led by traffic and vegetative reduction, after the end of such import traffic. The unit of the model is one individual, whose numbers are calculated through continuous functions. The population totals, its subgroups by sex and origin (africans and natives), as well as the dynamic of mortality , fecundity and birth rates, imigration and total variation. In closing, the results are compared to a few historica indicators of population in Brazil and Pernambuco.