Did the 2008--2009 Food and Financial Crises Affect Child Mortality? The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

We estimate an aggregate model of child mortality on a panel of 40 African countries over the period 1995--2007. This model is then used to assess the impact of the 2008--2009 food and financial crises on child mortality, by comparing the number of child deaths computed under a "business-as-usual scenario" with those computed under the actual 2008--2009 "crisis scenario". According to the simulation results, the 2008--2009 food price rise and recession caused a statistically non-significant additional 27,000 child deaths. However, if the 2008--2009 changes in other determinants of child mortality are factored in, the number of child deaths declined by 15,000. This unexpected result is explained by the fact that the effects of the rise in domestic food prices and the recession were offset in most of the region by the protective effect on the under-five mortality rate of a surge in food production, and by a rise in public expenditure on and foreign aid to the health sector.