Données comparées sur l'évolution de la fécondité selon le rang de naissance en Allemagne fédérale et en France (1950-1977)
Calot Gérard. ? Compared data on the evolution of fertility by birth- order in the Federal Republic of Germany and in France (1950-1977). The study of age-specific fertility rates, by legitimacy (births out of wedlock, legitimate births) and birth order (defined among live births born of the current marriage), in France and in the Federal Republic of Germany for the last 30 years, allows to describe the patterns which the decline of fertility has followed in both countries. Transversal indexes yield, on the whole, rather correct information, especially on the important reduction of fertility at higher birth orders (3 and more) but longitudinal analysis leads to unquestionable conclusions : in France, the decline of fertility arises, for more than four fifths, from the fall for orders 3 and over; but in the Federal Republic the decline is appreciable from birth order 2 and the proportion of childless couples has notably increased. Total fertility rates have exaggerated the magnitude of the fertility decline which has occurred these last fifteen years; they presently underestimate the true level of fertility whilst they overestimated it during the 60's. The difference between French and German fertility has remained remarkably stable from birth cohorts born around 1935 (which showed an average complete fertility of 2.6 children per woman in France, and 2.2 in the Federal Republic) and those born around 1950 (respectively 2.0 and 1.6), the fall expressed in terms of average complete fertility being, in both countries, around .6 child per woman in 15 generations ? instead of 1.0 to 1.1 on the basis of total fertility rates in 15 years. In France, the return of fertility to replacement level requires a small increase for birth order 2 and a somewhat important one for birth order 3. In Germany, an important increase for birth order 2 and a considerable one for birth order 3 would ensure the replacement of generations.
Year of publication: |
1979
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Authors: | Calot, Gérard |
Published in: |
Population (french edition). - Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED). - Vol. 34.1979, 1, p. 1291-1347
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Publisher: |
Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED) |
Saved in:
freely available
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