"Economic Evaluation of Power Source Mix: Simulation toward 2023" (in Japanese)

This paper simulates the power source mix of Japanese electricity in the year of 2023 based on the information publicly available from electricity companies and electric power system council. It evaluates eight scenarios based on three important parameters for the Japanese electricity market: demand growth, penetration rates of renewable energy sources, and utilization rates of nuclear power. The paper employs a grid model that replicates power flow among the nine supply areas covering Japan, except for the area of Okinawa. The paper calculates future costs of electricity supply and emissions of carbon dioxides for each of the eight scenarios. It also assesses the impact of future PV penetration with an emphasis of the Kyushu area, where the impact appears most severe.