Fiscal Sustainability under an Aging Population in Japan: A Financial Market Perspective

In this short paper, we investigate fiscal sustainability under an aging population in Japan from a financial market perspective. First, we focus on self-fulfilling expectations in the bond market and point out the risks of a fiscal collapse triggered by a change in market expectations. Second, we examine the extent to which market participants require the government to improve its fiscal position. Further, we discuss the possibility of lower economic growth accompanied with a high level of government debt, based on relationships observed across countries.