Global Prediction of Recessions

We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.

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Year of publication:	2015
Authors:	Dovern, Jonas ; Huber, Florian
Publisher:	Heidelberg : University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
Subject:	GVAR \| recession forecast \| QPS \| probability forecast

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Series:	Discussion Paper Series ; 585
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.11588/heidok.00018381 [DOI] 821938894 [GVK] hdl:10419/127402 [Handle] RePEc:awi:wpaper:0585 [RePEc]
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422294