Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative
Year of publication: |
2014-02-06
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Authors: | Armstrong, J. Scott ; Green, Kesten C. ; Graefe, Andreas |
Institutions: | Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München |
Subject: | accuracy | analytics | bias | big data | causal forces | causal models | combining | complexity | contrary series | damped trends | decision-making | decomposition | Delphi | ethics | extrapolation | inconsistent trends | index method | judgmental bootstrapping | judgmental forecasting | nowcasting | regression | risk | shrinkage | simplicity | stepwise regression | structured analogies |
Extent: | application/pdf |
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Series: | |
Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Classification: | C01 - Econometrics ; C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General ; C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods; Monte Carlo Methods ; C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models ; C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple/Simultaneous Equation Models ; C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics ; C5 - Econometric Modeling ; C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs ; C9 - Design of Experiments ; K2 - Regulation and Business Law |
Source: |
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