Household vehicle type holdings and usage: an application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model

The increasing diversity of vehicle type holdings and the growing usage of vehicles by households have serious policy implications for traffic congestion and air pollution. Consequently, it is important to accurately predict the vehicle holdings of households as well as the vehicle miles of travel by vehicle type to project future traffic congestion and mobile source emission levels. In this paper, we apply a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model to analyze the holdings and use of multiple vehicle types by households. Data for the analysis is drawn from a 2000 San Francisco Bay Area survey. The model results indicate the important effects of household demographics, residence location variables and vehicle attributes on vehicle type holdings and use. The model developed in the paper can be applied to predict the impact of demographic, land use, and operating cost changes on vehicle type holdings and usage. Such predictions are important at a time when the household demographic characteristics are changing rapidly in the United States. The predictions can also inform the design of proactive land-use, economic, and transportation policies to influence household vehicle holdings and usage in a way that reduces traffic congestion and air quality problems.