Identification of a Cyclical Component in the Socio – Economic Development of Azerbaijan

This article deals with a brief critical analysis of the theory of Singular Spectrum Analysis and a problem of allocation of cyclic components from a general dynamics of economic situation is also considered. As a solution of this problem the asynchronous harmonic analysis algorithm based on spectrum analysis and decomposition filtering algorithm is proposed.This research is based on fundamental works by foreign scholars and studies. The aim of the research is to identify and evaluate the cyclic component and prospects of social and economic development of Azerbaijan on the analysis the most important indicator GDP. The results of the research. As a result of the research, a number of models were constructed. Important cyclic dependencies have been identified. An econometric analysis of models and relevant conclusions are made. Calculations and graphs are made based on free software, i.e. the statistical environment R, which is one of the most dynamically developing programs in its class. In the course of the study, we identified the main parameters, general trends, seasonal and cyclical components of Azerbaijan's GDP for 22 years from 1997 to 2019.The comprehensive econometric tests carried out during the research showed that the constructed econometric models meet all the basic ideas of econometric analysis, that is, the conditions of specification, parameterization and verification, and are quite adequate to the real economic situation in the country.Practical significance. The findings of the research can be successfully applied to analysis and predict the socio-economic development potential during the diversification of the economy of Azerbaijan.The results, suggestions and recommendations obtained in this research can be used in shortand medium-term planning of the main indicators of social and economic development of Azerbaijan