Identification of Macroeconomic Factors in Large Panels

This paper presents a dynamic factor model where the extracted factors and shocks are given a clear economic interpretation. The economic interpretation of the factors is obtained by means of a set of over-identifying loading restrictions, while the structural shocks are estimated following standard practices in the SVAR literature. Estimators based on the EM algorithm are developed. We apply this framework to a large panel of US monthly macroeconomic series. In particular, we identify five macroeconomic factors and discuss the economic impact of monetary policy shocks. The results are theoretically more plausible than those implied by standard SVAR models and indicate a significant role for monetary policy shocks in macroeconomic dynamics.