Impact of EU biofuel policies on the French arable sector: A micro-level analysis using global market and farm-based supply models

This paper aims to ex-ante assess the micro-economic impacts of current EU biofuel policies on the French arable sector using an agricultural supply model (ASMMA) coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (MIRAGE-BioF). The application of this modelling framework confirms that biofuel policies would significantly affect the EU agricultural market, with price increase by 2020 as high as +40% in the case of rapeseed compared with a status quo at 2008 level. This would strongly impact land use and production of firstgeneration feedstock crops in France (rapeseed, cereals and sugar beets). The highest percentage increase would be in land dedicated to rapeseed (+50%), likely to occur in regions with a low initial rapeseed land share. This increase would boost farm income of most arable farms (+10% on average); however, the environment would face increase pressure from agricultural production with more use of pesticide (+5%) and increase in N2O emissions (+2.5%).