Impact of Exchange Market Forces on Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates during Globalization Period: An Empirical Analysis

This paper analyzes the impact of exchange market forces on Pak-Rupee/US dollar exchange rates during the 1965-1971 globalization period. The main findings are that a) the behavior of Pakistan’s fundamentals relative to those of the USA help to explain exchange market forces against the Pak-Rupee; b) during the run up todevaluation in the globalization period the monetary authorities in Pakistan were acting to reduce domestic credit; but that c) additional pressurewas brought against the Pak-Rupee from speculative sources. These findings relate to current thinking on the choice of the exchange rate regime as even well behaved fundamentals may not be sufficient to sustain a currency on its peg.