Integrated Modelling of Economic-Energy-Environment Scenarios - The Impact of China and India's Economic Growth on Energy Use and CO2 Emissions

A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macroeconomic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the microeconomic and macroeconomic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency.