Job Flows and Establishment Characteristics: Variations Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas

This paper addresses the role played within metropolitan areas by heterogeneous agent models of constant churning. The evidence shows positive relationships between job turnover, young establishments, and metropolitan employment growth. Most areas, however, differ in their levels of job creation rather than job destruction. Results persist after controlling for regional differences in industry, but less so when controlling for differences in the establishment age distribution, and are consistent overall with standard models of creative destruction. Evidence from several entering cohorts, however, contradicts the vintage replacement process of creative destruction models. Namely, job destruction decreases as establishments age and there is no clear inverse relation between establishment entry rates and exit ages. These patterns are instead consistent with a turnover process seen in standard models of firm learning. Further evidence suggests that these patterns vary systematically with the overall employment growth of a region. Together, the results suggest that (i) processes of both creative destruction and firm learning may matter for local labor dynamics, but future models will have to reconcile with this new evidence, and (ii) intrinsic local factors, such as the “business climate”, may affect the dynamics of both processes.