This paper reports the results of a survey of top economics bloggers. The survey was conducted in mid-July 2010 by soliciting input from among the top 200 economics bloggers as ranked by Palgrave’s Econolog.net. Sixty-eight bloggers responded to this survey, compared to eighty-five respondents to the first quarter survey, and seventy-six respondents to the second quarter survey. While many (around 60 percent) of the respondents participated in all three surveys, the results across quarters are not directly comparable. For this survey, four bloggers submitted questions of their own design: James Hamilton (Econbrowser), Jeff Miller (A Dash of Insight), Virginia Postrel (Dynamist), and Allison Schrager (Free Exchange). The Kauffman Foundation is dedicated to the idea that entrepreneurship and innovation drive economic growth. Naturally, this new technology of blogging is a fascinating one, both for its effect on the economic research frontier, but also as an innovation in its own right. A survey of so many high-profile participants offers a unique opportunity for discussion, and this survey should be viewed as one way of summarizing some of the insights of the community of economics bloggers. KEY FINDINGS THE ECONOMY Economic bloggers have a renewed pessimism in their outlook on the U.S. economy, with 68 percent saying that conditions are mixed, and the rest split three to one toward weakness rather than growth. For an economy in which growth is the norm, 47 percent of respondents think that the U.S. economy is worse than official statistics indicate, and only 5 percent believe it is better. When asked to describe the economy using five adjectives, “weak” or some variation was used eighteen times, “uncertain” was used twenty-six times, and “grow” was used just eight times. Regardless, the consensus three-year projection sees growth primarily in the budget deficit, global output, and interest rates. Increases in jobs and GDP are expected to be tepid – outpaced by poverty, for example. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS Although the panel is largely non-partisan, a four-to-one majority of top economics bloggers believes the government is too involved in the economy. The main policy recommendation (selected from a small set of choices) is for the government to “promote new firm formation,” with 50 percent support. This pales compared to the consensus against many policy options: Only one respondent agrees with Andy Grove’s recent Bloomberg Businessweek article, which recommended a “tax on the product of foreign labor,” while just four think the government should “increase business regulation.” Opinion in favor of “increased financial regulations” is at 28 percent, just over half the support this policy option received last quarter (before the new federal law was enacted). SURVEY RESULTS The Kauffman Economic Outlook includes core questions that will recur each quarter and one-time-only topical questions. Core questions focus on two areas, and are presented in the charts and tables below: the performance of the U.S. economy and policy assessments and recommendations. Finally, there are topical questions provided by economics bloggers themselves, which are not categorized
