Likely winners and losers in upcoming COVID-19 economic crisis – lessons learned from the GFC

Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent efforts to contain it have started economic downturn that may even surpass the global financial crisis (GFC). The purpose of this study is to uncover the features of enterprises’ resilience during and after an external shock such as the GFC might be helpful in predicting the shock impact on enterprises and setting proper policy measures for the upcoming COVID-19 crisis. Design/methodology/approach: The authors analysed the impact of the GFC on the entrepreneurial population in/of the Czech Republic using marginal effects method on a large random sample of 4,478 enterprises. In this analysis, the authors defined two groups of enterprises – “winners” and “losers” – based on the company’s dissolution and performance indicators. Findings: The GFC struck the enterprise population asymmetrically in terms of the enterprises’ characteristics but also in terms of time. Micro and small size companies are the most vulnerable to external shocks such as the GFC. Technological level plays an important role in the recovery phase, especially in the case of manufacturing micro enterprises. Research limitations/implications: Although there are differences between the GFC and the COVID-19 crisis, the GFC was the only comparable shock in modern history in its global nature, depth and unpredicted occurrence. It can be expected that the impact on enterprises can be partly similar. Practical implications: Government support of micro size companies should be the priority in the upcoming COVID-19 crisis. Supporting the innovation and technology progress might accelerate the recovery phase after the crisis especially in micro companies as well. Originality/value: This paper presents interesting insights into the impact of external shocks such as the GFC or COVID-19 on enterprises. It uncovers typical features of “winners” or “losers” of such shocks.