Long Term Trends in Steel Consumption

Since the iron and steel sector contributes considerably to industrial CO2 emissions it is important to identify the underlying factors driving steel demand. Using a panel dataset this paper examines the interrelation of steel demand with GDP and its composition, in particular the investment share since investment goods can be expected to be particularly steel intensive. Our analysis confirms that there seems to be an increase of steel demand in an initial stage of economic development and a decline after economies have reached a certain level of per capita income. Moreover, we find some evidence that carbon leakage do not seem to play a role in the steel sector.