Macro-Financial Trends in a Model with Concentrated Ownership of Capital

This paper investigates the macroeconomic and asset pricing consequences of the upward trend in financial market participation observed in the U.S. since the late 1980s. In a limited participation two-agent Real Business Cycle model where stockholders feature external habit preferences, higher participation produces higher equity premium and stock market volatility, while reducing the risk-free rate and the standard deviation of aggregate consumption. When coupled with a lower volatility of aggregate shocks, this mechanism helps rationalizing a period characterized by milder aggregate fluctuations but increased perceived risk in asset markets, such as the Great Moderation. I show that these results stem from a novel mechanism whereby an increase in the participation rate improves risk-sharing but raises the representative investor's average risk-aversion, with the latter channel dominating the former. Using household-level data on consumption from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey for the sample 1984-2017, I show that the risk-aversion channel is consistent with the empirical evidence