Macroeconomic Implications of Demographic Changes in Kenya
This research study attempts to quantify probable macroeconomic effects of demographic changes in Kenya given the available evidence that Kenya is going through a demographic transition. First, the study establishes linkages between demographic variables and sectoral government expenditures through the OLS estimation method. Next, the estimated equations are used to project three expenditure profiles based on three population scenarios generated from different assumptions on changes in fertility. Finally, the projected expenditures are used in a macroeconomic model of the Kenyan economy to simulate their effects on five key macroeconomic variables: inflation, rate of growth of output, balance of payments, budget deficit and rate of growth of investment. The results suggest that demographic changes in Kenya can produce significant effects on the economy. The results also suggest that other factors such as real per capita income, relative price of public to private goods, and external debt obligations influence growth of some government expenditure categories.
Year of publication: |
1998-10
|
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Authors: | Kirori, Gabriel N. ; Ali, Jamshed |
Institutions: | African Economic Research Consortium |
Saved in:
freely available
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