New Car Sales and Used Car Stocks: A Model of the Automobile Market

This article develops a short-run general equilibrium model of the automobile market by combining a discrete choice model of consumer automobile demand with simple models of new automobile production and used vehicle scrappage. The theoretical model allows an unlimited degree of heterogeneity of both consumers and automobiles, with equilibrium defined as aggregate demand equal to supply for every vehicle type. Econometric estimates of the scrappage and demand functions are then used to create a simulation model of the automobile market, which is used to provide forecasts of automobile sales, stocks, and scrappage for the 1978-1990 period.