On the Role of Wages in the Ukrainian Transition Process: An Empirical Investi¬gation

This paper looks for answers to the following questions: Why did one of the most prosperous republics of the former USSR suffer from both persistent and high inflation during the first four years of its young existence? Flow could the Ukrainians efficiently put an end to the skyrocketing of prices in the early months of 1996? With the support of a cointegration test, we show that between January 1992 and November 1995 Ukraine was faced with a complex monetary regime in which wages were the economic variable through which most of the inflationary pressures were transmitted, either directly or indirectly. Since the beginning of 1996, the new monetary regime reduced inflation but wage and pension arrears have quickly increased. We outline possible remedies for this situation that is not sustainable in the long term.