Qualitative Response Estimations of the Selling Behaviour in the Swedish Market for Owner-Occupied Houses

The probability that a household will sell its house in a specific year is assumed to be a function of, principally, changes in the characteristics of the household subsequent to purchase. Probit models are estimated from Swedish register data. Leads and lags in the behaviour of the households are introduced. The empirical results indicate that changes in the characteristics of the households do matter. A decrease in income seems to enhance the probability of selling more than an increase in income of the same magnitude. Leads equations exhibit at least as good fit as lags equations. The significance of leads appear to be attached mainly to changes in income while there is a weak indication that lags might be more important concerning the influence of changes in the number of children.