Quantifying Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Potential for Regional Renewable Energy Policy

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has matured to become a technically viable large-scale source of sustainable energy. Understanding the rooftop PV potential is critical for utility planning, accommodating grid capacity, deploying financing schemes and formulating future adaptive energy policies. This paper merges the capabilities of geographic information systems and object-based image recognition to determine the available rooftop area for PV deployment in an example large-scale region in south eastern Ontario. An innovative five-step procedure has been developed for estimating total rooftop PV potential which involves geographical division of the region; sampling using the Feature Analyst extraction software; extrapolation using roof area-population relationships; reduction for shading, other uses and orientation; and conversion to power and energy outputs. A relationship across the region was found between roof area and population of 70.0 m2/capita ± 6.2%. For this region with appropriate roof tops covered with commercial solar cells the potential PV peak power output is 5.74 GW (157% of the region’s peak power demands) and the potential annual energy production is 6909 Gwh (5% of Ontario’s total annual demand). This suggests that 30% of Ontario’s demand can be met with province-wide rooftop PV deployment. This new understanding of roof area distribution and potential PV outputs has an immense significance to energy policy formulation in Ontario and the methodology developed here is transferable in other regions to assist in solar PV deployment