Right-to-Carry Laws and Violent Crime : A Comprehensive Assessment Using Panel Data, the LASSO, and a State-Level Synthetic Controls Analysis

Our preferred panel data regression specification (the "DAWmodel") and the Brennan Center (BC) model, as well as other statistical models by Lott and Mustard (LM) and Moody and Marvell (MM) that had previously been offered as evidence of crime-reducing RTC laws, now only generate statistically significant estimates showing RTC laws increase overall violent crime and/or murder when run on the most complete data. A LASSO analysis finds that RTC laws are always associated with increased violent crime. To the extent the large increases in gun thefts induced by RTC laws generate crime increases in non-RTC states, the panel data estimates of the increase in violent crime will be understated