Risk Cubes or Price Risk and Ratings (Part II)

Risk is difficult to measure — so difficult that no single measure seems robust enough for all circumstances. This is especially true of measuring the risk contained in insurance‐linked securities. Insurance risk is usually asymmetrically skewed. As a conse‐quence, traditional capital market risk measures — expected loss, probability of default, and the standard deviation of return out‐comes — are less than perfect to the insurance task. Without a good risk measure, it is impossible to compare the risk‐adjusted pricing of insurance‐linked notes on a consistent basis. It is impossible to tell which securities are cheap and which are expensive. It is impossible to decide on their value relative to more traditional investments.