Social Security Generosity, Budgetary Deficits and Reforms in North Cyprus

This paper estimates the fiscal burden of the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) Social Insurance Pension System that was closed in 2008 to new members, and analyzes the appropriateness of the 2008 reforms that introduced the new Social Security Pension System in the TRNC. To calculate the overall deficit, estimates are made from the difference between the present values of future contributions and the pension benefits. The magnitude of the unfunded cost makes any marginal policy reform ineffective in eliminating the excessive fiscal burden on the current and future taxpayers for the next three decades. Major structural reforms will be required.