Spatial structural change – Evidence and prospects

Main topics of the following analysis are the development of spatial structure and the question whether the economic disparities between agglomerations and peripheral areas will con- or diverge. Frequently, economic disparities are measured by per capita i ncome. Because of the relationship between income growth and employment change, a separate analysis of both quantitative components seems to be more appropriate. Fu rthermore, to reduce the uncertainty concerning the future development of regional di sparities human capital - owing to its decisive importance for economic and technolog ical competitiveness - is considered as well. Consequently this study of regional disparities is based on the analysis of time-series for several indicators from 1976 to 1996. Due to this long period the data is constrained to the old FRG. The central tendencies of sp atial structural change - on the one side (relative) gains of urban fringe and peripheral areas, on the other side (relative) losses of agglomerations and their centres - prove to be extremely stable for all indicators on the level of spatial categories. T he stability of spatial structural change suggests that the deconcentration process will continue in the near future.