The 1930s and 1980s : Parallels and Differences

The possibility of crisis in the years ahead, as in the years that followed the first half of 1930, lies in private revulsion against the dollar − e.g. by Japanese insurance companies with their vast savings and limited investment opportunities at home, unmatched by public governmental efforts in support of the dollar as lenders of last resort. If the leadership of the United States in providing economic stability is waning, as appears possible, what follows? It is possible that the habits of cooperation built up during the period of United States leadership will ensure, what the political scientists call a "regime". Such is the hope. My prediction, however, is that the path ahead stretches out uncertainly, with twists and turns, surprises, some perhaps unpleasant