The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity
Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.
Year of publication: |
2020
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Authors: | Barro, Robert J. ; Ursua, José F. ; Weng, Joanna |
Publisher: |
Munich : Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo) |
Saved in:
freely available
Series: | CESifo Working Paper ; 8166 |
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Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Type of publication (narrower categories): | Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Other identifiers: | 1692970496 [GVK] hdl:10419/216562 [Handle] RePec:ces:ceswps:_8166 [RePEc] |
Source: |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207931
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