The Dynamics of Poverty Transitions in Mexico

More than half of the Mexican population lives in poverty. While there are many studies about poverty in Mexico, there are very few studies about the dynamics of poverty. The purpose of this paper is to measure chronic and transient poverty in Mexico and to analyze its determinants. Design/methodology/approach Based on the spells approach, a transition matrix was estimated and a multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various socioeconomic and demographic variables upon the dynamics of poverty. Findings It was found that 36 percent of households are chronically poor and 64 percent are transiently poor. The results show that variables directly related to chronic poverty are: belonging to an ethnic minority group, living in a rural area, a large family size, having a high percentage of older adults and children in the household and having a female household head. Having more education, having more assets, the age of the household head and having access to potable water and electricity in the household are variables positively related with the probability of escaping poverty. Originality/value To our knowledge, this is the first study on the dynamics of poverty using the spells approach for Mexico as a whole, not just for urban areas. The value of this work is that it estimates chronic and transitory poverty in Mexico as well as their possible determinants. The study findings can be used by the government to design and implement public policies to alleviate both chronic and transient poverty in Mexico