The place of the eurozone countries in the international economy: Comparison using discriminant analysis

Purpose – This study aims to statistically investigate the place of the eurozone countries in the framework of the international economy and particularly within the most advanced non Euro-currency countries; second it attempts to explain the eventual discrepancies in the performing of the eurozone from the most advanced non-eurozone countries by the weaknesses of some eurozone members. The discriminant analysis as an investigation tool has been chosen as an as unbiased as possible investigation technique. Of course, every discriminant analysis requires classification criteria. The criteria adopted in this study result to more or less the same conclusions. Design/methodology/approach – Most econometric studies prefer the popular econometric techniques employing classical regression techniques, while methods of multivariate statistics and non-linear regressions occupy a minor place as statistical tools. Numerous and multivariate data call for multivariate techniques, which at the cost of losing information and details allow for better a perception of the data structure. Therefore, a great part of the statistical analysis focuses on multivariate techniques and non-linear regression. Findings – The study concludes that despite the present budget and debt crisis hitting some major and minor eurozone members the “real” economy of the eurozone posseses a first class place in the World economy – both in relative and absolute terms. During the course of the study effort was paid to balancing the tools of investigation and the fertility of the results, in particular to approach questions such as: what is present condition of the eurozone? How solid are the predictions for a hanging collapse of the euro currency and the eurozone? At the end of the study is given an apercu on the transition of the member countries to the eurozone and their economic status by the end of 2011 tries to soften the fears for the eurozone future. Originality/value – This study tries to analyze the position of the eurozone countries from an arithmetic/objective perspective, ignoring as much as possible the (geo) political and national interests of the principal countries involved as an effort to check the solidity of the fears. Not all parameters of the economy can enter the study. The author has chosen a few variables, which to their opinion reflect the overall performance of an economy. Parameters relating to financial aspects have nowadays in great degree become autonomous and call for special inquiry. The study seeks to add to econometric studies carried out by national and international institutions and Universities. It mainly concerns the statistical techniques and to treat eurozone as a whole entity vs the rest of the developed non-eurozone world. Indeed, the study tries to defend the eurozone using objective data against a multitude of gloomy predictions, raised by several world partners, for the performance and the future of the eurozone.