The Realities and Changes of "Lifetime Employment": Trends from 1945 to 1995 (Japanese)

Considering lifetime employment as a worker's continuous employment with a single employer from hiring to retirement and focusing on men with employment experience, this paper analyzes realities of such employment and changes that occurred during the period 1945 to 1995. Specifically, this paper analyzes (1) the hazard rate for leaving or changing the first full-time employer and the probability of lifetime employment (probability of not leaving or changing the employer before retirement), (2) changes in employment that occur between the first job and the job held at age 30, and (3) the hazard rate for leaving or changing the employer regarding the job held at age 30 and the probability of lifetime employment after that time. It presents theories and hypotheses for each of these analyses and, based on the results, clarifies the determinants of lifetime employment and its changes over time.