The Rule and the Exception: Italy’s Regional Imbalances (1891-2001) through a Shift-Share Analysis

The article analyses the new estimates of regional value added in Italy, in benchmark years from 1891 to 2001, by decomposing them into activity rates and per worker productivity, in agriculture, industry, and services. The impact of activity rates and per worker productivity on the pattern of regional inequality are assessed and, through shift-share analysis, the «share change», «mix change», and «shift change» components of growth are measured, in four different periods: the liberal age (1891-1911), the interwar years (1911-1951), the economic miracle (1951-1971), and the post-Fordist years (1971-2001). The results help highlight the peculiarity of the Italian long-run pattern of regional imbalances, i.e. the exceptionality of southern Italy, whose convergence during the economic miracle came to a halt in the 1970s.