Ungleichgewichte auf dem schweizerischen Arbeitsmarkt. Eine ökonometrische Modellschätzung

This paper presents an econometric disequilibrium model for Switzerland. Firms' decisions on production capacity, output and labor demand are analyzed in a vintage framework. The specification of labor supply allows for intertemporal substitution. The macro relationships take into account that demand/supply ratios may differ across micro markets (structural mismatch). The estimated model implies that the corresponding structural component of unemployment has increased over time. However, the recent surge in unemployment is mainly caused by decreasing aggregate demand. Intertemporal substitution of labor supply turns out to be weak. In contrast to earlier recessions, the downturn in labor demand is reflected to a much greater extent in official unemployment statistics.