Who will seize the promise of the new?

This paper studies the conditions that motivate firms to begin exploratory moves that lead to investing in an emerging industry. Using knowledge, institutional and population ecology theories, we capture contributing factors to these exploratory drives. We use a longitudinal census of the US Venture Capital industry since inception (>33 years, >4500 firms, >85000 transactions 4 industries). Data are analyzed using a Cox proportional hazard model, setting clocks to track unfolding events. Predictions that size (positive), age (negative), knowledge specialization (negative), and interaction between age and prior experience (positive) have significant effects on exploratory drives are supported