D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael; Yin, Xiao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Matched transaction-level, credit-registry, and survey-based data reveal that consumers on average form excessively … extrapolative income expectations lead consumers to increase current spending, accumulate more debt, and face more defaults when … defaultable unsecured debt and diagnostic Kalman filtering whereby consumers over-extrapolate income shocks when forming …