D'Agostino, Antonello; Surico, Paolo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the XXth century. The … forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation … only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These …